With no breakthrough in the prolonged Strait of Hormuz standoff and global markets facing severe energy shipping disruptions, a new American intelligence assessment has concluded that Iran retains a substantial portion of its prewar missile and launch capability despite months of U.S. and Israeli military operations.
According to officials familiar with the classified findings cited by The New York Times, Iran still possesses roughly 70% of its mobile missile launcher inventory and has restored operational access to most of its missile infrastructure, including 30 of the 33 missile sites positioned along the Strait of Hormuz.
The report said nearly 90% of Iran’s underground missile storage and launch complexes are now assessed to be partially or fully operational, suggesting Tehran continues to maintain significant retaliatory capacity despite sustained attacks on its military assets.
U.S. intelligence officials also concluded that Iran remains capable of launching missiles from damaged or inactive facilities by relying on mobile launcher systems, enabling the country to preserve operational flexibility even after repeated strikes.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has triggered one of the most serious disruptions to global energy and shipping markets in decades. The International Energy Agency has warned that the conflict sharply disrupted global crude flows and pushed oil supply below demand, intensifying volatility across international energy markets.
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and a substantial share of global liquefied natural gas shipments normally pass through the narrow maritime corridor. The continuing disruption has increased shipping and insurance costs, strained fuel supplies in parts of Asia and heightened concerns over inflation and broader supply-chain instability.
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The conflict has also accelerated geopolitical and military realignments across the Middle East. Major regional powers including Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates have either expanded defense cooperation or increased weapons acquisitions amid fears of a prolonged regional confrontation.
Analysts warn that with Iran retaining much of its strategic capability while rival regional powers deepen military preparedness, the Middle East may be entering a prolonged phase of uncertainty and militarization.
The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that continued instability in the Gulf and sustained disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could significantly damage the global economy by fueling inflation, weakening trade flows and slowing international growth.
The intelligence findings also appear to challenge repeated assertions by President Donald Trump that Iran’s military infrastructure had suffered crippling losses during the conflict.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales dismissed suggestions that Tehran had effectively rebuilt its military capability.
“Iran’s current reality is not sustainable,” she said, adding that anyone who believed Iran had reconstituted its military was “either delusional or a mouthpiece” for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Regional tensions have remained elevated since the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, prompting retaliatory missile and drone attacks by Tehran against Israel and several U.S.-aligned Gulf states.
A ceasefire brokered through Pakistani mediation took effect on April 8, though follow-up negotiations in Islamabad failed to produce a lasting settlement. Trump later extended the truce indefinitely while diplomatic contacts continued behind the scenes.
Pakistan has since remained engaged in efforts to revive stalled diplomacy between Washington and Tehran amid fears that renewed fighting could further destabilize Gulf security and international trade routes.
Amid growing concern over the risk of a wider regional conflict, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for a peaceful negotiated settlement and urged all sides to avoid steps that could deepen instability across the Middle East.
Trump recently rejected Iran’s latest response to a U.S. proposal aimed at permanently ending the conflict, describing Tehran’s position as “totally unacceptable.”
Besides UAE, Saudi Arabia also fired back at Iran during conflict
He has also claimed that the United States does not need Beijing’s intervention to push Iran to a negotiated settlement of the conflict as per American demands.
Trump has stipulated that any deal with Iran must be on U.S. terms and must included Tehran’s renunciation of nuclear enrichment program.
Tehran has refused to address the nuclear dispute in the first phase of the agreement to end the war.
Iftikhar Ali is a veteran Pakistani journalist, former president of UN Correspondents Association, and a recipient of the Pride of Performance civil award
