A temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been extended, offering a window for diplomacy. However, continued tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are deepening disruptions to global trade and placing growing strain on humanitarian operations and vulnerable communities far beyond the Persian Gulf, according to a new United Nations report.
The extension comes as the economic toll of the conflict continues to mount. The world has already lost an estimated $50 billion worth of crude oil output since the war began, according to a Reuters analysis, underscoring the scale of disruption to global energy supplies.
However, economists and policymakers say it remains difficult to quantify the total global losses.
The impact extends far beyond supply disruptions, encompassing damage to oil and gas infrastructure from targeted strikes across the Gulf, reduced industrial output, disruptions to air travel, and a sharp decline in two-way trade flows, including food and other essential commodities. The full economic cost—spanning production losses, logistics breakdowns and secondary inflationary effects—is still unfolding and would require a comprehensive, cross-sector assessment.
UN Secretary-Geneal António Guterres welcomed the ceasefire extension, calling it “an important step toward de-escalation and creating critical space for diplomacy and confidence-building.” He urged all sides to avoid actions that could undermine the truce and to engage constructively toward a lasting resolution.
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, including mediation led by Pakistan, security incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz continue to underscore the fragility of the situation.
Reports of vessels being fired upon or seized by both U.S. and Iranian forces highlight persistent risks to commercial shipping through the narrow waterway, which carries nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies and a significant share of international fertilizer trade.
The UN report notes that maritime insurance premiums have surged, vessel traffic has declined sharply since late February, and nearly 20,000 seafarers remain stranded amid ongoing uncertainty.
Humanitarian and Economic Fallout
The disruption is triggering a widening humanitarian and economic shock extending well beyond the Middle East.
Higher energy prices and reduced shipping flows are driving up transportation, electricity and agricultural input costs in import-dependent Asian economies, including Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Philippines, affecting aid delivery and access to essential services.
Across Asia, an estimated 45.5 million people require humanitarian assistance, with response plans targeting 27.2 million people and requiring $3.6 billion in funding.
Food Systems Under Pressure
Up to one-third of global fertilizer raw material trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions are tightening supply at a critical time.
In Bangladesh, fertilizer plant closures have hit production during the winter rice season, while rising fuel and transport costs are driving food inflation across the region, including sharp diesel price increases in Nepal.
The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that delays in key inputs could disrupt planting cycles and reduce yields. UN estimates suggest an additional 9.1 million people in Asia could face acute food insecurity if the crisis persists.
Aid Operations Under Strain
Rising fuel costs, disrupted shipping routes and higher insurance premiums are increasing the cost and complexity of humanitarian operations, particularly in landlocked and fragile settings.
In Afghanistan, logistics costs have risen by about 20%, with significant risks to supply chains. In Myanmar, fuel shortages have led to rationing, complicating aid delivery. Bangladesh is also facing energy and supply disruptions affecting service continuity.
Risk of a Prolonged Crisis
The UN warns that needs are rising even as the cost of delivering aid increases, raising the risk of scaled-back operations without additional funding.
While the ceasefire offers a chance to ease tensions, continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz—and its cascading effects on trade, food systems and humanitarian operations—risks turning a temporary disruption into a deeper and more prolonged global crisis.
Muhammad Luqman is Associate Editor at Views News Now. He writes on wide-ranging issues including economy, South Asia, the Middle East, agriculture, economy and innovation. Luqman has worked some of the leading news organizations and won acclaim for his original and research-based works.
