Economist Atif Mian has noted that Pakistan’s diplomatic intervention to halt U.S.–Iran standoff contributed to a significant positive shift in global markets, estimating that the resulting stabilization may have added trillions of dollars in global value.
In a commentary, Mian said that on April 7, markets were briefly positioned on the edge of a major escalation, with expectations of a U.S. ultimatum suggesting a severe deterioration in the conflict.
Dr. Atif Mian, who has served as Professor at Princton University, noted that prediction markets at the time placed the likelihood of a ceasefire at below 5%.
How Pakistan made the world over 3 trillion dollars richer
On April 7, the world edged toward Trump’s 8pm ultimatum that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” By mid-afternoon, Polymarket gave less than a 5% chance for a ceasefire. But then in a flurry of last-minute… pic.twitter.com/fbeOcgDcid
— Atif Mian (@AtifRMian) April 10, 2026
However, he noted in a post on X that a rapid wave of late-stage diplomacy—led in part by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif—shifted expectations dramatically, with ceasefire probabilities rising sharply to near certainty.
According to Mian, both U.S. and Iranian leadership later acknowledged Pakistan’s role in facilitating the diplomatic breakthrough.
Mian, who is co-author of book House of Debt, highlighted that financial markets responded strongly to the de-escalation. He pointed to a roughly 2.9% rise in the S&P 500 following the ceasefire announcement, describing a broader positive reaction across global equities.
With global equity markets valued at approximately $125 trillion, he estimated that a 2.9% increase equated to roughly $3.6 trillion in added market value worldwide, attributing the gain to reduced geopolitical risk following the diplomatic shift.
Pakistan invites US, Iran to Islamabad on April 10 for formal talks after ceasefire breakthrough
“Global markets represent about $125T, so a 2.9% jump represents a gain of 3.6 trillion dollars for the world. Pakistan helped create TEN times its own GDP for the world!”
He characterized the development as an example of Pakistan’s potential role as a peace broker on the international stage, suggesting that such diplomatic positioning could yield significant global and domestic benefits.
Mian also expressed hope that Pakistan would build on this role by strengthening internal cohesion and moving away from divisive politics, emphasizing inclusive governance and equal citizenship for all.
Muhammad Luqman is Associate Editor at Views News Now. He writes on wide-ranging issues including economy, South Asia, the Middle East, agriculture, economy and innovation. Luqman has worked some of the leading news organizations and won acclaim for his original and research-based works.
