When Anthony Trollope published The Way We Live Now in 1875, he satirized a society consumed by reckless speculation and greed, blind to the ruin it was courting. A century and a half later, the UN is making a strikingly similar indictment—except this time the speculation is with natural resources, and the crash threatens not a handful of investors but the entire planet.
The 1.5°C rise in global temperature is no longer a much-feared threshold on the horizon; it has been crossed, and the years and decades ahead promise no relief unless the world changes course. Yet the United Nations is urging resolute action and far-sighted policies to avert an irreversible scenario—insisting that a turnaround is still achievable.
In its newly released Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, the UN Environment Program (UNEP) lays out a narrow but credible path to pull global temperatures back below the critical limit by the end of the century—provided nations act now.
According to the report, published Wednesday, avoiding the worst-case scenario requires slashing emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 compared to 2025 levels, while also removing a staggering 320 billion tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere. Even under this “lowest possible” overshoot scenario, warming is expected to peak at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century before gradually declining.
“Overshoot is not surrender,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message accompanying the report. “We can still keep it as small and as short as possible—and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.”
The report strikes a cautiously hopeful tone, noting that opportunities to accelerate climate action are greater than ever. Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, renewable energy has surged, the growth of coal and oil has slowed, and climate policies have driven emissions down in many regions. Still, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that every fraction of a degree matters.
“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,” she said. “So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is possible.”
The stakes are high. If current policies continue unchanged, the report warns, warming could reach 2.8°C this century—and continue rising. Even if all countries deliver on their current national climate plans (NDCs), warming would still hit 2.6°C. Those projections are worse than last year’s, largely due to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emissions estimates.
The burden of that turnaround falls heaviest on the world’s largest polluters—China, the United States, India, the European Union, and Russia—whose combined emissions account for roughly two-thirds of the global total, according to recent studies.
If the UN’s timeline for rescue is to hold, these economies must lead the way, not merely by submitting stronger national climate plans but by delivering on them. Their choices in the next few years will determine whether the 1.5°C target remains a receding hope or a recoverable one.
The report calls for urgent implementation of goals set during the first Global Stocktake, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, shifting away from fossil fuels, cutting non-CO₂ emissions, and halting deforestation. Progress on most of these fronts, however, remains insufficient.
As the second Global Stocktake begins next month at the UN COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, the report urges countries to extend quantified goals to 2035 and 2040 and to make existing targets clearer and more measurable. To stay on track, for example, the share of coal, oil, and gas in total energy supply would need to drop by at least 55%, 15%, and 5% respectively by 2035—and by 75%, 30%, and 35% by 2040.
Will out climate clock get back to normal? A lot depends on the choices made in the next few years. The message from the UN is clear: the window to act is narrowing, but it hasn’t closed yet.
Ali Imran is a Washington-based journalist, who has worked for leading world news organizations as a correspondent, expert and in editorial positions. He is a published author and poet.
