Democratic Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. Congresswoman, and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the incumbent Lt. Governor, head into Virginia’s historic election that would pick the state’s first female governor on November 4.
Virginia Governor’s historic race
The vote in the Commonwealth – home to a large number of federal employees and contractors – also holds immense national significance with high-stakes for both parties.
The vote takes place amid continuing federal shutdown, spotlighting the national issue with voters’ verdict likely to have political ramifications for both parties ahead of 2026 midterms.
Surveys across the Commonwealth over the summer suggested a tight race between the two experienced politicians.
On Tuesday, we will vote for a Virginia where our kids can thrive. pic.twitter.com/lHInDt5TdQ
— Abigail Spanberger (@SpanbergerForVA) November 1, 2025
However, the latest numbers over the past few weeks hint at Spanberger leading her rival.
A poll by Atlas Intel conducted in the last week of October revealed on Friday that Spanberger leads the race with 53.9 support among likely voters while Earle-Sears has backing of 45.2% voters.
For Lt. Governor’s race, 51.7% of likely voters supported Democrat Ghazala Hashmi for governor. Republican John Reid garnered support of 45.6 voters polled.
Interestingly, Governor Glenn Youngkin received a 49-point approval for his performance against 48 points disapproval.
Starting November 3, the Virginia Emergency Nutrition Assistance (VENA) initiative will begin distributing weekly funds to Virginians receiving SNAP benefits.
Thank you to @VA_SHHR Janet Kelly, @VDSS Commissioner Kevin Erskine, and our entire administration for their tireless… https://t.co/3ZNe1Q1gFT
— Lt. Governor of Virginia – Winsome Earle-Sears (@WinsomeSears) October 31, 2025
The foremost issue for Virginians in the election remained inflation, cost of living and affordability with 56.2% voters calling it the top consideration for them in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, followed by economy and jobs market.
According to RealClearPolling, an analysis of nine major surveys conducted in October 2025 shows that Abigail Spanberger enjoyed 7.6 points lead over Winsome Earle-Sears with an average 50.7% support to 43.1% among voters.
Analysts say besides serving as a verdict on the state policies, the November 4 election will also reflect Virginians’ views about the Trump Administration’s policies on national issues.
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Ali Imran is a Washington-based journalist, who has worked for leading world news organizations as a correspondent, expert and in editorial positions. He is a published author and poet.
