A confidential CIA assessment delivered to U.S. policymakers this week concludes that Iran could withstand the American naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing severe economic distress, according to people familiar with the report.
The findings raise questions about President Donald Trump’s claims that Iran is rapidly collapsing under US military and economic pressure.
The intelligence assessment, reported by The Washington Post, also concludes that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of American and Israeli strikes.
One US official said Iran still possesses roughly 75% of its prewar mobile missile launchers and about 70% of its missile stockpile. The official added that Iran has restored access to most underground storage facilities and repaired damaged missiles.
The assessment contrasts with statements Iran’s missile arsenal had been “mostly decimated.”
U.S, officials continue to defend the blockade strategy, arguing it is severely damaging Iran’s economy by disrupting trade and oil exports.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said the pressure campaign could inflict “permanent damage” on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
A U.S. intelligence official told the paper: “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage — severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding,” the official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, said in a statement. “What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering — starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”
The conflict erupted on February 28 following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear-linked targets. Iran later restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.
In response, Trump imposed a blockade on Iranian ports after US-Iran talks in Pakistan collapsed.
The administration later launched “Project Freedom,” a naval escort initiative aimed at helping commercial vessels navigate the Gulf safely, though Trump paused the operation this week at Pakistan’s request to create space for diplomacy. Tehran confirmed Wednesday that it was reviewing a new US proposal aimed at ending the war.
Despite mounting economic pressure and major military losses, U.S. intelligence officials believe Iran retains substantial resilience. The CIA assessment estimates Tehran could endure the blockade for 90 to 120 days — and potentially longer — by storing unsold oil aboard tankers and exploring overland exports through Central Asia.
According to the Post, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Iran is losing half a billion dollars daily because of the blockade.
“During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily,” Kelly said in a statement. “Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States Military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports. The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”
U.S. intelligence officials also warn that Iran’s missile and drone capabilities remain a major threat, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where even limited attacks on commercial shipping could disrupt global energy markets and maritime traffic.
Iftikhar Ali is a veteran Pakistani journalist, former president of UN Correspondents Association, and a recipient of the Pride of Performance civil award
