The U.S.–Israel war with Iran has entered its third week, with continued military strikes and retaliatory attacks deepening instability across the Middle East while raising questions about the trajectory of the conflict and the strategy of President Donald Trump.
Trump initially outlined a strategy aimed at weakening Iran’s leadership and forcing the government in Tehran to capitulate under sustained pressure. But the conflict has instead expanded, with Iranian officials signaling their intent to prolong the confrontation and impose broader economic and geopolitical costs.
Any decisions Trump makes in the coming weeks could carry significant implications both for the conflict and for domestic politics, particularly with control of Congress at stake in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that an additional expeditionary unit of 2,500 Marines would be deployed to the region to support ongoing military operations.
Iranian combat power declines, as U.S. dominance builds over vast swaths of Iran. pic.twitter.com/LrYe5PVMj1
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 15, 2026
Iranian officials have responded with defiant rhetoric
“Starting wars is an easy matter,” wrote Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. “Ending them does not happen with a few tweets. We will not leave you until you admit your mistake and pay its price.”
Rising costs and domestic scrutiny
The war is also drawing increasing criticism inside the United States as military operations continue alongside growing concerns about economic consequences.
Some economists warn that a prolonged conflict, combined with existing trade tensions, could reverse recent progress on inflation and raise the cost of energy and essential goods for American consumers.
More than 2,000 people have been killed across the region since the United States launched joint strikes with Israel on Feb. 28 targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, as well as sites associated with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Trump Says Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Killed in U.S.–Israeli Strike
Civilian casualties have also been reported. An airstrike that hit a girls’ primary school in the Iranian city of Minab in Hormozgan Province killed at least 165 schoolgirls and injured many others. An initial Pentagon review suggested the strike may have been carried out by U.S. forces.
According to figures cited by NPR, the death toll includes more than 1,200 civilians in Iran, at least 13 U.S. service members, 14 people in Israel and hundreds more in Gulf states.
Mixed signals from Washington
Despite the ongoing fighting, Trump said late Friday that Iran was “totally defeated” and “wants a deal,” hours after telling reporters that the military operation was “way ahead of schedule.”
Iranian officials have rejected those claims. The country’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed that Iran will continue the fight, maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and resist calls for a ceasefire.
Trump has also offered varying estimates of how long the war could last. While he initially suggested the conflict might run four or five weeks, he told reporters Friday that it would end “when I feel it in my bones.”
Escalation around Hormuz
U.S. forces on Friday conducted what Trump described as “one of the most powerful bombing raids” against Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf.
The president said the attack destroyed all military targets on the island but avoided striking oil facilities “for reasons of decency,” while leaving open the possibility of doing so in the future.
Kharg Island, located about 16 miles off Iran’s coast, has become a focal point in the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply normally passes.
Jake Tapper asks: “Is Trump hoping other countries will send naval escorts, or have they committed?”
Waltz fires back: “We welcome, encourage, and even DEMAND their participation to help their own economies!!”pic.twitter.com/lWyU1VkoKh
— Brandon Straka #WalkAway (@BrandonStraka) March 15, 2026
Iran has effectively closed the strait to most commercial traffic as it steps up attacks on vessels attempting to transit the waterway.
In a message broadcast on Iranian state television, Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would continue using the “lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz” until U.S. and Israeli strikes stop.
The disruption has sent energy markets higher, with Brent crude again rising above $100 per barrel on Saturday.
Economic pressure and security risks
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the administration expects the conflict to end within weeks and argued that the U.S. economy could absorb higher energy prices.
“You have to understand that America is not going to have its economy harmed by what the Iranians are doing,” Hassett said on Face the Nation. “In the 1970s we didn’t produce much oil, but now we do.”
FOX NEWS: If this disruption lasts for months, can the US economy absorb the shock without a recession?
HASSETT: First of all, it’s not going to last for months. President Trump’s team has briefed us that it’s going to be 4 to 6 weeks beginning 2 weeks ago, and that we’re ahead… pic.twitter.com/7gn6tB7RDH
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 15, 2026
The Trump administration has considered sending naval escorts for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, although Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested the U.S. Navy was not yet prepared to implement such operations.
Security experts say escort missions in the strait could be risky and expensive, especially as Iranian forces continue missile and drone attacks in the area.
Trump said Saturday that several countries would deploy warships to help patrol the waterway and restore shipping traffic.
“This should have always been a team effort,” he wrote on Truth Social. “It will bring the world together toward harmony, security, and everlasting peace.”
Political and strategic stakes
The conflict has also triggered political debate in Washington.
Republicans in Congress have so far blocked Democratic efforts to restrict Trump’s authority to continue the military campaign without congressional approval, defeating two War Powers Resolution measures.
Former Vice President Mike Pence said Republican voters largely support the military campaign despite debate among some conservatives about whether the war aligns with the “America First” foreign policy doctrine.
Some foreign policy experts say the administration’s goals remain unclear.
“The problem with the administration’s approach is that it has constantly shifted its objectives,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Some goals are achievable, such as weakening Iran’s conventional military capabilities. Others, like determining Iran’s next leader, are not.”
Election-year stakes
Democrats have increasingly criticized Trump’s Iran strategy, arguing that the conflict’s economic fallout undermines Republican promises to reduce everyday costs.
“I think Democrats are well positioned heading into the midterms this November,” said Kelly Dietrich, chief executive of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains party supporters to run for office and work on political campaigns.
WATCH: Top Democrat on House Intelligence Committee @jahimes tells us the question he wants answered about Iran during this week’s intelligence hearing: “How does this end?” pic.twitter.com/2ZXoTyO84r
— Fox News Sunday (@FoxNewsSunday) March 15, 2026
Meanwhile, global powers are watching the conflict closely. Analysts say China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil is monitoring developments while Vladimir Putin’s Russia may benefit indirectly, as the conflict has eased enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil exports by diverting Western attention to the crisis in the Middle E
Iftikhar Ali is a veteran Pakistani journalist, former president of UN Correspondents Association, and a recipient of the Pride of Performance civil award
