Record rise in carbon dioxide level signals long-term warming

Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO₂), the longest-lasting greenhouse gas, is essential to sustaining life on Earth. But since the Industrial Revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has driven CO₂ levels to unprecedented heights — with profound consequences for the climate and global warming.

Over the past six decades, CO₂ growth rates have tripled.

And this week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that atmospheric CO₂ levels surged to a record high in 2024, locking in further long-term global warming and increasing the risk of extreme weather events.

Greenhouse gases trap heat radiating from the Earth’s surface and re-emit it all around and back toward the ground.

Sans CO₂, the planet’s natural greenhouse effect would not be able to keep global temperatures above freezing point. But as humans release more CO₂ into the atmosphere, this natural effect is amplified, driving temperatures upward.

According to the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, CO₂ alone accounts for about 80% of the total warming effect from all human-generated greenhouse gases since 1990.

What the Unprecedented Rise Means

The record increase in CO₂ was driven by sustained fossil fuel emissions, intensified wildfire activity, and a weakening of the Earth’s natural carbon “sinks” — forests, soils, and oceans that absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere. Scientists warn this trend could trigger a dangerous feedback loop, accelerating climate change even further.

The WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin shows that the average annual CO₂ increase rose from 0.8 parts per million (ppm) in the 1960s to 2.4 ppm between 2011 and 2020. From 2023 to 2024, CO₂ levels rose by a record 3.5 ppm — the largest single-year jump since monitoring began in 1957. Global average concentrations reached 423.9 ppm in 2024, up from 377.1 ppm in 2004.

Although about half of emitted CO₂ is absorbed by land and ocean systems, this buffering capacity is weakening due to warming seas, prolonged droughts, and reduced ocean solubility.

“There is concern that terrestrial and ocean CO₂ sinks are becoming less effective, which will increase the amount of CO₂ that stays in the atmosphere, thereby accelerating global warming,” said Oksana Tarasova, WMO Senior Scientific Officer. “Sustained and strengthened greenhouse gas monitoring is critical to understanding these feedback loops.”

According to the Global Carbon Budget 2024, fossil fuel-related CO₂ emissions have increased steadily since the mid-20th century — rising from around 11 billion tons per year in the 1960s to an estimated 37.4 billion tons in 2024.

Fossil fuels such as coal and oil contain carbon stored for millions of years by ancient plant matter through photosynthesis. In just a few centuries, human activity has released that long-sequestered carbon back into the atmosphere — disrupting the planet’s natural carbon cycle.

Other Greenhouse Gases Also Set Records

Methane and nitrous oxide — the second and third most significant long-lived greenhouse gases — also reached record highs in 2024.

  • Methane rose to 1,942 parts per billion (ppb) — 166% above pre-industrial levels.
  • Nitrous oxide reached 338 ppb, representing a 25% increase over pre-industrial levels.

“The heat trapped by CO₂ and other greenhouse gases is turbo-charging our climate and leading to more extreme weather,” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. “Reducing emissions is essential not just for our climate, but for economic stability and community well-being.”

Call for Action Ahead of COP30

The WMO released the report ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, scheduled for November. The agency emphasized that robust, continuous global monitoring of greenhouse gases is essential to guide effective climate policy and action.

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Kiran Asim is a writer who covers the U.S., Europe, South Asia, and the Middle East. Her reports and analyses look at the geostrategic issues and contemporary developments and their economic and political implications. She also writes about society and education.

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